The Bible tells us that “A prudent man foreseeth the evil, and hideth himself: but the simple pass on, and are punished (Proverbs 27:12, KJV).” Put another way, a wise person sees the trouble coming and prepares for it. Those that ignore the coming trouble will reap the consequences of their ignorance.
I was thinking about such things last week and reminded of the year 2000, or “Y2K.” Do you remember Y2K? That was the year that computers systems around the world were in danger of failing because they could not properly resolve dates that had years containing four digits. Computers of that era referred to years as having only two digits, i.e., 1952 was known simply as 52, 1908 was 08, 1986 was 86, and so on. January 3rd, 1993 would be referred to as 01�393.
As the years rolled on, computer scientists theorized that, when the calendar rolled over to the year 2000, computers would not be able to accurately tell what year they were in. Would “00” mean 1900 or 2000? This problem, nicknamed “The Millennium Bug,” could mean that millions of computers around the world would need to be somehow upgraded so that they could properly tell time. The theory was put to the test and multiple computerized scenarios were run. Sure enough, the systems failed.
Preparations began in earnest in the mid 1990s, as computers around the world were replaced or upgraded. Microsoft even issued a free CD called the Year 2000 Resource CD, which contained upgrade patches and other helpful tools; I still have my copy. $200 billion was spent worldwide combating the problem.
Meanwhile, dire predictions were made as to what could happen if all of this upgrading and repairing proved to be insufficient, or could not be completed in time. Planes could fall from the skies, utility grids could shut down, the Stock Market could crash, and worldwide calamity could ensue as society was plunged back into a Stone Age, pre-computerized state.
Many individual citizens, not trusting in government or corporations to protect them, began stocking up on food, water, guns and toilet paper. People who engaged in such preparations were often mocked as being paranoid, survivalist wackos, when, in fact, they were only doing the same sort of preparations in which our government now strongly recommends that every citizen participate. Don’t believe me; visit Ready.gov, the Department of Homeland Security’s official preparedness website and see for yourself.
When Friday, December 31, 1999 finally segued into Saturday, January 1, 2000, the world breathed a great sigh of relief. Worldwide disaster had been averted. All of the massive Y2K preparation efforts had paid off. This didn’t satisfy most major media organizations, though. Deprived of being able to report horrific stories about the end of the world, they began to viciously attack those who had decided to prepare. They even went so far as to attack computer security professionals, accusing them of inventing the whole Y2K “scare” as a way to inflate computer industry profits and line their own wallets. A false sense of security began to settle in.
Even though major disaster had been averted, some very bad things still happened as a result of the Millennium Bug. Low level wind shear detectors at every major U.S. airport failed. U.S. and French defense intelligence satellite systems went down. The Japanese lost the ability to monitor certain nuclear power plants. On the following Monday morning, thousands of businesses began to charge customers day after day for a single purchase made on a single day.
Still, because there were no huge, sensational stories to report, and the world did not disintegrate into a riotous mob of computer-deprived cavemen, the news media dismissed Y2K as a hoax. Nothing happened. All of the preparations that took place were a waste. The whole thing was a rip-off. Sadly, that’s what most people think today when they look back at Y2K. The truth is that a major disaster was averted because wise people saw the trouble coming, and they prepared for it.
Here we are, almost 10 years later, and we are in danger of experiencing a similar scenario, in the form of the Conficker virus. If you’re reading this column, then you most surely have heard some Conficker virus stories. Millions of Conficker-infected computers scattered around the world are in a holding pattern, awaiting instructions from the bad guys, located who-knows-where. Great damage has already occurred; more could be coming.
Security researchers discovered that Conficker was set communicate with all of its infected computers on April 1. The virus would update itself, making it harder to detect, and receive new instructions. To this day, nobody knows what those instructions were, or when Conficker will “wake up” and begin to deploy its payload. Nobody knows what the payload is, or exactly what Conficker will do.
Then, Sunday, March 29, almost six months after the discovery of Conficker, CBS/60 Minutes allowed Lesley Stahl to do a massive disinformation scare segment about Conficker, titled “The Internet Is Infected.” Conveniently, it appeared on the same channel as and following the OU women’s basketball team’s trouncing of Pittsburgh in the NCAA playoffs, capturing an audience (including myself) that it may not have otherwise had. People started getting scared. I started getting phone calls from worried customers as soon as 60 Minutes was over, and for the next few days.
April 1 came and went. Conficker did its update exactly as instructed; nothing more, nothing less. However, because the Internet did not implode and collapse, as Lesley Stahl’s veiled predictions implied, many people dismissed the whole thing as a non-event, an April Fools Day hoax. Again, a false sense of security set in. Yet, for the inventors of the virus, everything went as planned. Conficker still sits out there in the wild, waiting.
A wise man sees the trouble and prepares for it. Be wise.